Wake me up at St. Andrews

Golf Betting Lines

07/18/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - What? What? What?

That's my general response when my dear wakes me up in the middle of the night. Be it a noise or my diesel-locomotive snoring, that's my canned response to her.

It's roughly what we all felt Sunday afternoon.

Louis Oosthuizen won the British Open Championship at St. Andrews. The oldest, most prestigious major title, won at the very home of golf, went to a largely unknown man from South Africa.

Sadly, this might have been the biggest yawner of a major championship in my generation, but I've been poked, not by my dear, but by the game of golf. I'm finally awake.

Paul Azinger said it best on ESPN's broadcast: "I hope the viewer wasn't bored with the blowout."

Sorry, Zinger, but we were.

Let's clear some things up first about the boredom.

Oosthuizen's performance was nothing short of brilliant. I just referred to this as the most boring major championship ever, but that was partly due to the amazing display by Oosthuizen.

He owned St. Andrews on the weekend. By Friday afternoon, no one expected Oosthuizen to come out on top. Lee Westwood was there. So was Paul Casey. Mark Calcavecchia might have scared you 15 years ago, but even at 50, he's a streaky guy who could've piled up six birdies on the front nine in round three.

Oosthuizen hung tough. In fact, he did better than that, he attacked. At St. Andrews, attacking is playing to your strength in relation to the course. He drove it spectacularly. His irons were crisp. His putting was generally genius. Oosthuizen flat-out awed us all, including Tom Watson, who applauded as Oosthuizen walked up 18 on Sunday. It seemed like Watson might cry at what he saw.

Oosthuizen was just that good and this is a guy to root for.

He wasn't a country club kid who was destined by the gods or genes to be a major champion. Oosthuizen is the son of farmers from South Africa. He was in Ernie Els' academy for a few years honing his craft.

No, Louie didn't have to ward off Tiger or Phil or Ernie. Casey got close, but Oosthuizen swatted him away like an annoying gnat nipping at your ankle.

And that's when boredom set in.

Where was Tiger? I get that his game is as far down as his personal life, but didn't he dominate St. Andrews twice for a claret jug? He couldn't get his putter working, but Louis Oosthuizen could?

Where was Phil? Does he want to be No. 1 in the world because I'm having serious doubts. Lefty won't ever win a British, but St. Andrews and this week was probably his best chance and all he could muster was a tie for 48th?

Where was Ernie? Didn't he win twice this year?

Westwood? Top threes in four majors in the last three years, but no charge all week?

Rory McIlroy? A 63 then an 80, but at least this 21-year-old kid fought hard to get back into the top five.

Where was the challenge? I get that St. Andrews played difficultly, but Oosthuizen handled it like it was a local muni. He's a top 60 player, however the field and the championship let us down.

Oosthuizen's margin of victory was the biggest since Tiger at the Old Course in 2000. That leads to a very uninteresting tournament and it didn't let down.

Dominating performances draw interest, but not when it's a man very few have heard of. If Tiger or Phil had done this on Sunday, it would've been compelling. What we got wasn't.

Nothing against Oosthuizen, but this will forever be known as the biggest snoozer of a major. Kudos to him for making it that way, but wake me up for the PGA.

What? What? What?

Must have been a noise. Or my snoring.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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