Heads up: Penny goes for 12th win as Dodgers take on Mets

Baseball Betting Lines

07/21/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brad Penny will try for his 12th win of the season this afternoon when the Los Angeles Dodgers continue their four-game series with the New York Mets at Dodger Stadium.

Penny has been outstanding so far this year, posting an 11-1 mark, and is tied with Oakland's Dan Haren for the third best earned run average in the majors at 2.33.

The right-hander is 6-0 over 10 starts since his lone loss of the season on May 18 against the Angels. He has allowed one run or fewer in eight of those outings, including Monday against the Phillies in which Penny posted a win behind seven frames of four-hit, one-run ball with eight strikeouts.

It was a good sign for Penny, who was hammered for six runs in four innings of a no-decision on July 5 against Atlanta.

Penny, who is just 4-10 with a 5.82 ERA in 17 career starts against New York, is trying to avoid a second-half letdown that ruined his season last year. He went 10-2 before the All-Star break in 2006, but went just 6-7 in the second half with a 6.25 ERA.

Jorge Sosa will start this afternoon for the Mets coming off a tough-luck loss at San Diego. Against the Padres on Monday, Sosa allowed only two runs on five hits over six innings, but got little run support in New York's 5-1 loss. The defeat dropped Sosa to 7-4 on the year with a 3.84 ERA.

The right-hander, who is 1-3 over his last five outings, has made six lifetime appearances against the Dodgers, with two of those being starts. In that span, he is 0-1 with a 5.63 ERA after allowing 10 runs over 16 total innings. Sosa started against the Dodgers on June 13 and took the loss after yielding six runs over 5 2/3 frames.

Sosa will try to secure a series win for the Mets, who captured the second game of this set on Friday, 4-1, after outslugging the Dodgers 13-9 on Thursday.

Carlos Beltran homered for the second straight game and David Wright had an RBI for the Mets, who have won five of seven and have stretched their lead over the Braves to 3 1/2 games for the top spot in the National League East.

Oliver Perez (9-6) threw 7 1/3 strong innings, allowing six hits and a run with eight strikeouts. Billy Wagner threw the final inning for his 21st save.

New York, though, lost the reliable Jose Valentin, as the second baseman fractured his right tibia after fouling a ball off his leg in the fourth innings.

Nomar Garciaparra homered for the Dodgers, just his third long ball of the season, while Juan Pierre extended his hitting streak to 13 games with a single in the first inning. He also stole his 40th base of the season.

Brett Tomko gave up five hits and an unearned run over six innings in the start. Roberto Hernandez (0-1) allowed two hits and three runs -- two earned -- in the eighth inning, as the Dodgers lost for the third time in four games and still trail the first-place Padres by just a percentage point in the NL West.

The Dodgers swept a three-game series against New York this season from June 11-13 at Chavez Ravine. The Mets went 4-3 against LA in the 2006 series and swept Los Angeles in three games during last October's NL playoffs.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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