Amid trade rumors, Myers and Lilly square off in Astros-Cubs finale

Baseball Betting Lines

07/21/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two pitchers rumored to be on the trading block get together this afternoon in the Windy City, where Ted Lilly and the host Chicago Cubs take on Brett Myers and the Houston Astros at Wrigley Field in the finale of a three-game set.

Lilly is 0-2 with an 8.83 earned run average in his last three starts, but pitched well enough for the win his last time out in a 4-3 victory over Philadelphia last Thursday. He struck out 10 batters, allowed three runs and issued only one walk in six innings to remain at 3-8 in 16 starts to go along with a 4.07 ERA.

The veteran left-hander, who is just 2-4 in nine home starts, has enjoyed success against rival Houston in his career. Lilly is 7-1 with a 2.49 earned run average in 10 starts against the Astros.

Myers will try to push his winning streak to three straight starts when he takes the mound Wednesday. Myers hurled eight innings of one-run ball in a 4-1 win versus St. Louis on July 10, then held Pittsburgh to a pair of runs over 7 2/3 frames of his team's 5-2 victory last Thursday from PNC Park.

The right-hander, who is 7-6 in 19 starts with a 3.35 ERA, hasn't pitched so well on the road in his first season with Houston, going 2-6 in 10 starts away from Minute Maid Park. Myers beat Chicago in a 6-3 decision back on June 6 at home, as he fired 6 2/3 innings of two-run ball.

He is 8-3 with a 2.63 ERA in 14 career games (10 starts) against the Cubs.

Trying to slow down Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez may be tough since the slugger is coming off a three-homer game in last night's 14-7 blasting of the Astros. Ramirez, who racked up seven RBI in the lopsided win, owns seven home runs and 24 RBI this month, and has hit safely in 16 of his last 20 games.

Ramirez must have been motivated by the announcement that manager Lou Piniella will step down at season's end. Geovany Soto got into the act with a home run as well, while Starlin Castro posted three hits and Derrek Lee went 2-for-4 with three RBI and three runs scored.

"Watching from the bullpen and seeing the way Ramy's been swinging the bat, going all the way back to Arizona [series July 5-7], he's been seeing the ball well and he picked us up tonight," Cubs reliever Andrew Cashner said. "As soon as I got up, I thought I'd be going in and I just tried to keep it close."

Cashner tossed two innings of scoreless relief to pick up his first win in the majors and starter Ryan Dempster gave up seven runs -- four earned -- on eight hits in five innings of work for the no-decision.

The Cubs are 4-2 on their 10-game homestand and will also host St. Louis for three games at Wrigley Field. Piniella, meanwhile, is in his fourth season as Cubs manager. He guided the club to a winning record in each of his first three years, but the team is just 43-52. Piniella is the first Cubs manager in more than 70 years to post a record of .500 or better in each of his first three seasons with the team. He led the Cubs to NL Central titles in 2007 and 2008, but the team was swept in the Division Series both years.

Chicago has not won a World Series since 1908 and hasn't reached the Fall Classic since 1945.

Houston has lost three of four games and had a rough night on the mound. Starter Wesley Wright made his first career start and surrendered six runs, one of which was earned, and six hits in 4 2/3 innings in the no-decision. Brandon Lyon suffered the loss for permitting two runs in the eighth and Gary Majewski was reached for five runs in the ninth.

"I wish I could have executed a little bit better in that fifth inning and gave our team a chance to get over it and move forward, but I didn't," Wright said. "I wish I would have made a different pitch to Ramirez. I showed him the curveball a lot, and he got it up in the air and it just kept carrying."

Chris Johnson homered and finished with two RBI for the Astros, who scored four runs in the second inning and took a 6-0 lead in the fourth. Carlos Lee had two hits and an RBI in a losing outcome.

Houston has won five of eight matchups with Chicago this season, one year after the Cubs took 11 of the 17 matchups between the two clubs.

Jazzspors Baseball Betting News

<< Hughley, Rowley and Reid earn weekly AFL honors
Tulsa, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tulsa wide receiver JEFF HUGHLEY, Spokane quarterback KYLE ROWLEY and Dallas defensive back DELENALL REID have been named the JLS Ironman, Russell Athletic Offensive Players and Riddell Defensive Player of the Week,

<< Canada's youth movement
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cast in the shadow of the Open Championship which finished this past weekend at St. Andrews, the 2010 installment of the RBC Canadian Open is all set to tee off at the historic St. George's Golf and Country Cl

<< NHL says Kovalchuk deal circumvented salary cap
NEWARK, N.J. (AP) -NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly says Ilya Kovalchuk's 17-year, $102 million deal with the New Jersey Devils has been rejected by the league because it circumvents the salary cap in the collective bargaining agreement.Daly said W

<< Rays OF Crawford leaves game
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Carl Crawford left Tuesday's game against the Baltimore Orioles following the top of the first inning after getting hit in the groin area with a pickoff throw. Crawford led off

<< Report: Hornets to name Dell Demps general manager
New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Orleans Hornets have reportedly found their next general manager. The Times-Picayune reported late Tuesday night that the Hornets are expected to name San Antonio Spurs vice president of bas

CFL East: Hamilton finally delivers >>
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Hamilton Tiger-Cats looked the best of any team in week three, something that will have head coach Marcel Bellefeuille smiling - at least until their next game. One game won't solve everything, but at leas

Rays wrap up set with Orioles at Camden Yards >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays will attempt to bounce back from a frustrating loss to the Baltimore Orioles when the two American League East inhabitants square off again this afternoon at Camden Yards, but it looks like as if t

Angels go for two-game sweep of Yankees >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The new Yankee Stadium hasn't been an enjoyable place for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the spectacular venue's brief history, but the three-time defending American League West champions will have an opportu

Surprising Argos play host to Lions >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The surprising Toronto Argonauts try to match their win total from all of last season as they host the British Columbia Lions at the Rogers Centre on Friday night. In 2009 the Argos posted a dismal 3-15 record,

Winless Eskimos seek win column against Blue Bombers >>
Winnipeg, MB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Edmonton Eskimos try once more to pick up their first win of the 2010 campaign this weekend as they pay a visit to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers for an interleague matchup at Canad Inns Stadium in Manitoba. N

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.