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06/30/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The collegiate running back gets to handle the ball more than any other position outside of the quarterback, so it is no wonder that they can have the biggest impact on the game. There are straight- line runners who can wear down the opposition with power and determination. There are those who can simply out-run defenders to the end zone and still others who use their elusiveness and field vision to produce jaw-dropping runs that find their way to highlight reels.
Despite different skill sets, these tailbacks all got the job done in 2009 and will highlight college football backfield play in 2010.
MARK INGRAM, ALABAMA
There is no denying the fact that the Heisman Trophy winner was a central figure in leading the Crimson Tide to the National Championship. The 5-10, 212 pounder rumbled for well over 1,600 yards last year with 20 total touchdowns (17 rushing) while averaging just over six yards per carry. The scary thing is that he might just be scratching the surface in terms of his overall talent and progression to the pro game. Of course the NFL will have to wait at least one more year, much to the chagrin of the rest of the SEC. The Alabama defense may have some rebuilding to do in 2010, but the offense should be potent again, with Ingram as its workhorse.
RYAN WILLIAMS, VIRGINIA TECH
Fresh legs proved to be the difference for a lot of teams last season, including Virginia Tech. With the loss of talented tailback Darren Evans to a knee injury prior to the season's start, Frank Beamer was forced to go with the 5-10, 206-pound freshman Williams, who seized the opportunity by rumbling for 1,655 yards and 21 TDs on 5.6 yards per carry. Evans is by all accounts ready to roll in 2010, but it may be awfully tough to wrestle carries away from Williams, who received plenty of Heisman attention in 2009 despite being a freshman. Tech's path to an ACC title this season will be led by the second- year tailback, who could very well be the fourth straight sophomore to take home the Heisman.
JACQUIZZ RODGERS, OREGON STATE
What he lacks in prototypical size at just 5-7, 195 pounds, Rogers more than makes up for in playmaking ability. Despite his diminutive stature, Rodgers is as dangerous a player as there is in the country, regardless of where he lines up on the field. Last season, he rushed for 1,440 yards and 21 TDs, while hauling in an impressive 78 receptions, for 522 yards and another score. In a predominantly pass-happy offense (and conference, for that matter), expect Rodgers to once again thrive in a dual role in Corvallis. While he may not top his 2009 campaign, you can expect the numbers to be similar when all is said and done in 2010. If that happens, the Beavers might just find themselves vying for a Pac-10 title and a BCS bowl bid.
EVAN ROYSTER, PENN STATE
Royster could have departed for the NFL last season, and Joe Paterno had to be thrilled to welcome him back to Happy Valley for his senior campaign in 2010. The 6-1, 209-pounder has the speed, elusiveness and power to excel at the next level. Despite his numbers tailing off slightly as a junior (1,169 yards, six TDs), Royster has shown the ability to come up huge in big-game situations. He will go toe-to-toe with Alabama's Ingram this season, as Penn State heads to Tuscaloosa early on in one of the top non-conference games of the season. How Royster fares in that one could determine the direction of his Heisman candidacy early on, and perhaps be a precursor of things to come for the Nittany Lions and their Big Ten slate.
NOEL DEVINE, WEST VIRGINIA
Don't let his size fool you. The 5-8, 180-pound Devine has lived up to his last name in Morgantown. A home run hitter, the tailback netted just over six yards per carry and rushed for a career-high 1,465 yards and 13 TDs as a junior in 2009. As elusive as they come in the country, this Mountaineer is a "game- changer" in every sense of the word. West Virginia has won nine or more games in five straight seasons, so don't expect Bill Stewart to try to fix something that isn't broken. The Mountaineers are a running team first and foremost, and if Devine can continue to improve on his play, the Mountaineers will once again vie for the Big East crown.
JOHN CLAY, WISCONSIN
Going from 155 carries in 2008 to a whopping 287 totes in 2009, you might wonder if this talented Badger will hold up physically at that pace. But at 6-2, 247 pounds, Clay has a frame befitting his workhorse role. A scary, punishing runner, Clay looks the part of an NFL fullback despite proving an ability to dominate as an every-down ball-carrier. In 2009, all he did was rumble for 1,517 yards and 18 TDs on just over five yards per carry, en route to being named the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year. With a navigable 2010 schedule (including Ohio State coming to Madison) and Clay clearing the path, look for the Badgers to be a front-runner for the Big Ten title this season.
DONALD BUCKRAM, UTEP
Buckram is probably the player on this list with the least amount of hype, as few outside of Conference USA have heard of him, but that could change in 2010. As a junior last year, Buckram shattered UTEP's single-season rushing record (which had stood since 1948), averaging 6.2 yards per carry en route to an astounding 1,594 yards, with 18 TDs. The 5-10, 195-pounder also showed his versatility by amassing 30 receptions and an additional three TDs through the air. Mike Price has a diamond in the rough in Buckram and after winning just four games in 2009, expect him to utilize his one true weapon as much as possible in 2010 in the hopes of returning the Miners to relevancy in C-USA this year.
DANIEL THOMAS, KANSAS STATE
The second Bill Snyder era began in Manhattan last year and for the junior college transfer Thomas, it couldn't have gone any better. The 6-2, 225-pounder will head into 2010 as an All-American candidate after rumbling for a conference-best 1,265 yards and 11 TDs, en route to being named the 2009 Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year. It remains to be seen whether Snyder can duplicate his efforts from his first stint with KSU, often mentioned in the discussion of the greatest turnarounds in the history of college football. If he can, however, Thomas could be just the building block needed to catapult the Wildcats back to that gridiron glory.
MONTEL HARRIS, BOSTON COLLEGE
Another player who is diminutive in stature (5-10, 192) but plays much larger, Harris is a "jitterbug" type of back who is as elusive as any runner in the country. As a sophomore in 2009, Harris was tabbed an ACC-Second Teamer, rushing for 1,457 yards and 14 TDs, improving significantly on a highly successful freshman campaign in 2008 (900 yards and five TDs). Another "game- changer," if Harris sees a similar progression in terms of production in 2010, expect his name to be mentioned in the Heisman mix and for the Eagles to remain in the hunt in the ACC.
BERNARD PIERCE, TEMPLE
Al Golden and the Temple Owls were one of college footballs' top stories in 2009, as the perennial doormat almost won the MAC, piling up nine wins and reaching the postseason for the first time in 30 years. The ceiling is extremely high for the talented Pierce in 2010, as the 6-0, 218-pounder had a record-setting season as a freshman, earning Freshman All-American and All-MAC First-Team honors after rushing for 1,361 yards and a school-record 16 TDs. It won't be another 30 years before the Owls are in a bowl game, and in fact, if Golden gets similar results from Pierce in 2010, it may just be back-to-back postseason appearances for the Owls.
OTHER TO KEEP AN EYE ON: Robert Turbin (Utah State), Daniel Herron (Ohio State), Roy Helu (Nebraska), Shane Vereen (California), DeMarco Murray (Oklahoma), Darren Evans (Virginia Tech).
<< Line of Scrimmage: NFL GameChangers '10: QBs
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cleveland Browns head coach Eric Mangini
has never been one to tip his hand, or to betray much emotion. If Mangini
harbors excitement somewhere beneath his stoic veneer, it's unlikely to surface
in a public s
<< Berdych ousts Federer in Wimbledon quarters
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Big Czech Tomas Berdych posted the
biggest win of his career on Wednesday by surprising six-time champion Roger
Federer in four sets in the Wimbledon quarterfinals.
The 12th-seeded Berdych dismissed
<< Lions and Eskimos do battle in week one of 2010 CFL campaign
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the CFL's new four-year Collective
Bargaining Agreement now in place, the British Columbia Lions and the Edmonton
Eskimos can now focus on kicking off their respective schedules on Sunday
evening at Commonwe
<< Hamilton and Winnipeg square off in 2010 CFL opener
Winnipeg, MB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With a new head coach leading the charge, the
Winnipeg Blue Bombers try to get the 2010 CFL season off on the right foot
Friday night as they host the Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Canad Inns Stadium.
Blue Bombers he
NHL FA: Kovalchuk highlights mediocre forward group >>
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - At the stroke of noon on Thursday, the NHL
free agency period will begin, and although the majority of forwards aren't the
big-ticket type, save for Ilya Kovalchuck, there are good players to be had at
the po
2014 U.S. Amateur awarded to Atlanta Athletic Club >>
Far Hills, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The United States Golf Association announced
that the 2014 U.S. Amateur Championship will be held at the Atlanta Athletic
Club in Duluth, Ga.
The championship is scheduled for Aug. 18-24.
This marks t
Diamondbacks recall P Enright to make debut, option Rosa >>
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Arizona Diamondbacks selected the
contract of right-handed pitcher Barry Enright from Double-A Mobile in time to
make his major league debut on Wednesday at St. Louis.
The 24-year-old was 4-1 and
Brind'Amour to hold press conference >>
Raleigh, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Carolina Hurricanes have scheduled a press
conference with Rod Brind'Amour at 2:30 p.m. (et.) at which time the veteran
center is expected to discuss his future with the club.
Brind'Amour, who turns 40 in A
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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